Do you suppose the numbers will move when the voters figure out the future former governor’s tax ‘plan’? Image from Oregon Catalyst. Oregon Catalyst has a look at the “plan.”
This is the latest from Riley Research Associates. Stream the Victoria Taft show here.
Here’s what one insider says: the last Riley poll was taken before Kulogoski’s ads got off the ground and Saxton’s immigration ads were in full flow.
Here’s NW Republican’s Coyote’s take on it:
A couple of things about this poll.
First, you never like to see your guy behind. However that being said, it cannot be a good sign that the incumbent is still below 50%. What you may be looking at here is that Kulongoski as the incumbent has peaked. Conventional political wisdom says that if you are the incumbent and you are still below 50% at this point in the election you are not going to convince any new people to vote for you.
That is why so many Republicans nationally are in trouble.
So the undecideds will break more heavily toward the challenger.
Obviously that won’t be enough. However that brings me to my second point. I just don’t see Starrett pulling 4%. I don’t get it. No, perhaps people are telling pollsters that but in the end I just can’t see her pulling more than 2%.
Ad 2% from Starrett onto Saxton… 38%
Ad 9% from undecided onto Saxton… 47%
Ad 1% from undecided to Kulongoski… 48%
I bet that is closer to where things really are. In my humble opinion.