The news that fully one third of all home sales in Oregon are foreclosures is depressing enough. Now a new set of numbers are out showing that we’ve still got a long way to go before we reach the bottom of the market.The Oregon Transformation Project notes that the rate of the home price reductions have put us on par with depression like numbers:
Not only have home prices in the metro areas reached their lowest levels since 2002, but the total percent drop in home prices in the last decade is greater than what the U.S. experienced during the Great DepressionWith the absence of a healthy private sector in Oregon and an unemployment rate that continues to exceed the national average, Oregonians can and should expect this housing trend to continue.
And in fact it’s projected to. The latest numbers by Robert Shiller are predicated upon continuing weakness in employment. He predicted up to a 20% price decline last Fall and we are down between 5% – 10% nationally since then. I suspect that this latest Shiller prediction may be a little too negative, but with a worsening unemployment picture it could certainly play out.At any rate another 5 – 10% price decline certainly seems likely before we hit bottom later this year or in 2012 in accord with his original prediction and they way the numbers seem to be playing out.
“Recent housing and employment data suggests the U.S. economy is at a tipping point where a double-dip recession is possible and home prices could have much further to fall, a veteran economist said Thursday.
Robert Shiller said the recent uptick in unemployment is not yet enough of a sign as to which way the recovery is heading. But if unemployment continues to rise in the coming months, it could suggest another recession.”
“My gut feeling is we might see a continuation of the decline” in home prices, Shiller said earlier Thursday at a Standard & Poor’s housing summit.He added that a 10 percent to 25 percent slump in real home prices “wouldn’t surprise me at all,” though he cautioned that was not a forecast.”
Tell ’em where you saw it. Http://www.victoriataft.com