Daily Archives: November 6, 2010

Flip the Switch and Leave the Rest of Us in the Dark

Chris Dudley announced his concession to John Kitzhaber in the Oregon governor’s race Wednesday night outside a dark restaurant in a Lake Oswego strip mall. Dudley was back lit by a single suspended swinging bulb revealing the location of his concession: El Ranchito Mexican restaurant. It was a humiliating end to Dudley’s high wattage, well run (with notable exceptions-see below), and classy campaign. When that bulb went out at the El Ranchito the hopes of half of Oregon went out, too. 
It didn’t have to be that way. We deserved better.
Dudley threw in the towel while he was still up in the count. He understood, however, that if all the votes were coming from Multnomah County he was toast. He lost by fewer than two percentage points. (here). 

Here are some of the things Dudley did to himself or which worked against him this election cycle:

1.
Oregon’s fraud-inviting mail in balloting could have been part of the problem. While there’s no evidence right now that any fraud has occurred, the legislature in the last session changed the way when actual votes CAN BE COUNTED. Now they can be TABULATED SEVEN DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION. As Bruce McCain has pointed out, the only things between someone leaking the latest vote count is a piece of tape and a laughably small $250 fine. (See here and here). In a year where the enthusiasm gap favored republicans (here), liberal MultCo saw an amazing, last day, voter turnout favoring the Kitzhaber campaign.
2.
The Dudley campaign’s failure to reach out to the Libertarian and Constitution parties could have been pivotal to his loss. Fusion candidates have been the rage this election cycle with mainstream parties buddying up with lesser third parties, such as the Dems with working family party etc. As you can see from the nearby count, if those more conservative voters had been wooed by Dudley he would have won the race. 
3.
The Dudley campaign kept its distance from the GOP. He was noticeably absent from big GOP heavy events such as the Ann Coulter event at the Schnitz. Others in the know suggest that Dudley wanted nothing to do with the party.  In fact the PARTY didn’t recruit him Gordon Smith’s old political consultants did.  In fact, the GOP appeared to be on a ‘need to know’ basis with Dudley’s campaign and, apparently, they didn’t need to know very much.
4.
Perhaps the most damaging move was Dudley’s failure to engage the most energized voter base the United States of America has seen in generations: The Tea Party movement. The movement is purely motivated by grassroots activism and populism as Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen point out here in their new book, Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System. Here’s what they contend:

The Tea Party movement is not a flash in the pan, as many have assumed. Nor is it a movement of racist rednecks and ignorant boobs, as its detractors have crudely suggested. To the contrary, it is an authentic grassroots movement of concerned American citizens demanding to be heard by an out-of-touch political establishment. Their concerns are real and their issues are legitimate. Moreover, the new populism is here to stay and it has already changed our politics for the better.

While Kitzhaber is the embodiment of his party’s ‘tea party populism’–the socialism and big spending embraced by the Democrats’ left,  Dudley’s campaign eschewed the Tea Party’s constitutional underpinnings of smaller government and fiscal accountability. Imagine if he’d bothered to compare and contrast the two view points. 
Dudley’s organization, however, stiff armed the Tea Party at every turn. They turned down or simply didn’t respond to invitations from the various organizations which comprise the Tea Party: Oregon 9/12 Project and Oregon Tea Party. I started asking Dudley to our special “Rock the Republic” election night party months in advance–win, lose or draw–and he was non-committal. Back channel invitations–including ones where we promised not to announce him in advance (so as not to turn off some voters who believed the worst about Tea Partiers) were rebuffed and ignored. Dudley eventually personally approved a special video phone connection to our election night soiree with Clackamas County AFP.  When their tech showed up (in suit and tie) to make the hook up, he was chased off by Dudley’s people.
Dudley came the closest to beating a democrat than anyone in years, but the “other” Oregon, not the democrats’, “our Oregon,” needed him to win and we were willing to help. Dudley’s choice to hastily call the media to bring to an ignominious end to a hard fought race was more than disappointing, it was disgusting. The “other” Oregon deserved better (See below for a better way to concede an election). In quitting the way he did, without formally paying homage to the “other” Oregon in red, white and blue regalia, Dudley made it seem as if this had simply been about him the whole time. Once again we’re left in the dark, with no representation.  Dudley may as well have turned around, unscrewed that lone light bulb at El Ranchito and turned off the lights.

Tell ’em where you saw it. Http://www.victoriataft.com

Flip the Switch and Leave the Rest of Us in the Dark

Chris Dudley announced his concession to John Kitzhaber in the Oregon governor’s race Wednesday night outside a dark restaurant in a Lake Oswego strip mall. Dudley was back lit by a single suspended swinging bulb revealing the location of his concession: El Ranchito Mexican restaurant. It was a humiliating end to Dudley’s high wattage, well run (with notable exceptions-see below), and classy campaign. When that bulb went out at the El Ranchito the hopes of half of Oregon went out, too. 
It didn’t have to be that way. We deserved better.
Dudley threw in the towel while he was still up in the count. He understood, however, that if all the votes were coming from Multnomah County he was toast. He lost by fewer than two percentage points. (here). 

Here are some of the things Dudley did to himself or which worked against him this election cycle:

1.
Oregon’s fraud-inviting mail in balloting could have been part of the problem. While there’s no evidence right now that any fraud has occurred, the legislature in the last session changed the way when actual votes CAN BE COUNTED. Now they can be TABULATED SEVEN DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION. As Bruce McCain has pointed out, the only things between someone leaking the latest vote count is a piece of tape and a laughably small $250 fine. (See here and here). In a year where the enthusiasm gap favored republicans (here), liberal MultCo saw an amazing, last day, voter turnout favoring the Kitzhaber campaign.
2.
The Dudley campaign’s failure to reach out to the Libertarian and Constitution parties could have been pivotal to his loss. Fusion candidates have been the rage this election cycle with mainstream parties buddying up with lesser third parties, such as the Dems with working family party etc. As you can see from the nearby count, if those more conservative voters had been wooed by Dudley he would have won the race. 
3.
The Dudley campaign kept its distance from the GOP. He was noticeably absent from big GOP heavy events such as the Ann Coulter event at the Schnitz. Others in the know suggest that Dudley wanted nothing to do with the party.  In fact the PARTY didn’t recruit him Gordon Smith’s old political consultants did.  In fact, the GOP appeared to be on a ‘need to know’ basis with Dudley’s campaign and, apparently, they didn’t need to know very much.
4.
Perhaps the most damaging move was Dudley’s failure to engage the most energized voter base the United States of America has seen in generations: The Tea Party movement. The movement is purely motivated by grassroots activism and populism as Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen point out here in their new book, Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System. Here’s what they contend:

The Tea Party movement is not a flash in the pan, as many have assumed. Nor is it a movement of racist rednecks and ignorant boobs, as its detractors have crudely suggested. To the contrary, it is an authentic grassroots movement of concerned American citizens demanding to be heard by an out-of-touch political establishment. Their concerns are real and their issues are legitimate. Moreover, the new populism is here to stay and it has already changed our politics for the better.

While Kitzhaber is the embodiment of his party’s ‘tea party populism’–the socialism and big spending embraced by the Democrats’ left,  Dudley’s campaign eschewed the Tea Party’s constitutional underpinnings of smaller government and fiscal accountability. Imagine if he’d bothered to compare and contrast the two view points. 
Dudley’s organization, however, stiff armed the Tea Party at every turn. They turned down or simply didn’t respond to invitations from the various organizations which comprise the Tea Party: Oregon 9/12 Project and Oregon Tea Party. I started asking Dudley to our special “Rock the Republic” election night party months in advance–win, lose or draw–and he was non-committal. Back channel invitations–including ones where we promised not to announce him in advance (so as not to turn off some voters who believed the worst about Tea Partiers) were rebuffed and ignored. Dudley eventually personally approved a special video phone connection to our election night soiree with Clackamas County AFP.  When their tech showed up (in suit and tie) to make the hook up, he was chased off by Dudley’s people.
Dudley came the closest to beating a democrat than anyone in years, but the “other” Oregon, not the democrats’, “our Oregon,” needed him to win and we were willing to help. Dudley’s choice to hastily call the media to bring to an ignominious end to a hard fought race was more than disappointing, it was disgusting. The “other” Oregon deserved better (See below for a better way to concede an election). In quitting the way he did, without formally paying homage to the “other” Oregon in red, white and blue regalia, Dudley made it seem as if this had simply been about him the whole time. Once again we’re left in the dark, with no representation.  Dudley may as well have turned around, unscrewed that lone light bulb at El Ranchito and turned off the lights.

Tell ’em where you saw it. Http://www.victoriataft.com

Pete the Banker: Transition from the Democrat Administration’s “We Should” Reform Fannie and Freddie to Republican Congressional “We Will” Reform Fannie and Freddie

While Barney Frank held on to win his Congressional seat back, he will lose the chairmanship of the House Financial Services Committee.  Representative Spencer Bachus of Alabama will likely step in as Committee Chair and will have primary responsibility for oversight of rule-making for the Dodd-Frank legislation and the long delayed reform of Fannie and Freddie.  “Republicans have said that GSE [government-sponsored enterprise] reform will be at the top of their agenda,” Killmer of the Mortgage Bankers Association observed.“  They’ll clearly be approaching this issue from a very different perspective than their Democratic predecessors, particularly with regard to the role and scope of the government’s involvement in the housing finance chain.”  Here. 

The Obama Administration has embraced the nationalization of the GSE’s under the conservatorship agreement, however even under a Democrat Congress the support of these institutions has eroded.  It is extremely likely that the Republican Congress will terminate the conservatorship, structuring a private industry resolution of the current fiscal morass these Administration consorts pose to the American Taxpayer.
Look to Republicans like Jeb Hensarling of Texas to force the hand of Treasury Secretary Geithner, FDIC Chair Sheila Bair and Consumer Head Elizabeth Warren, in making Dodd Frank regulations less onerous on financial institutions and less costly to consumers.  Jeb Hensarling will certainly push through the GSE Bailout Elimination and Taxpayer Protection Act (HR 4889) which provides the foundation for a transition to a Mortgage Industry without GSE’s. It requires increased Fannie and Freddie capital requirements, a sunset in the GSE’s charters and a orderly reduction in their operations and presence in the mortgage capital markets.  http://www.washingtonwatch.com/bills/show/111_HR_4889.html Here. 
This will force the Obama Administration to confront its irresponsible inaction on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  Ultimately, Obama will either have to agree to this reform, providing badly needed relief to struggling American Taxpayers from the onerous costs of this perpetual subsidy and resulting economic malaise that continues to paralyze the Housing/Mortgage Industries and American Economy or display his intransigence, unwillingness and/or inability to provide meaningful effectual change in the existing economic morass.

Tell ’em where you saw it. Http://www.victoriataft.com